According to @caprioleio, if quantum computing risks are not solved by 2026, traders should expect large, frequent market moves on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, signaling persistent volatility risk for crypto markets; source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 14, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1989244014487564733. No specific assets or magnitudes were cited, indicating a broad market volatility warning rather than a coin-specific call; source: Charles Edwards on X, Nov 14, 2025, https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1989244014487564733.

According to @caprioleio, Bitcoin needs a concrete target timeline for implementing quantum-safe protections even if he disagrees with the calculation method behind the proposed target, because a clear milestone provides critical execution focus for the network and stakeholders, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513. He warns that if Bitcoin has not solved its quantum vulnerability by the referenced target, the market could face severe downside, implying material tail risk to BTC price and long-duration holdings, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513. The post indicates a debated methodology behind the target but underscores the need for a visual milestone, framing quantum readiness as a key risk factor traders should monitor in BTC’s long-term thesis, source: @caprioleio on X, Nov 6, 2025, https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1985936887941648513.

According to the source, IBM has publicly demonstrated the 127-qubit Eagle in 2021 and the 433-qubit Osprey in 2022, and unveiled the 1,121-qubit Condor in 2023, as documented in the IBM Research quantum roadmap and announcements. NIST states that cryptographically relevant, fault-tolerant quantum computers do not yet exist and has initiated a multi-year migration to post-quantum standards, per NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography standardization updates in 2022 and 2024. For Bitcoin’s secp256k1 ECDSA, resource estimates indicate very large error-corrected qubit counts and long runtimes are required for Shor-based attacks, far beyond today’s devices, per Roetteler et al. 2017 and NIST assessments. In practice, only outputs whose public keys are revealed at spend are directly exposed before any upgrade, while P2PKH, P2WPKH, and Taproot outputs reveal the pubkey only on spending, limiting immediate on-chain attack surface, per the Bitcoin.org Developer Guide.

According to @caprioleio, current quantum computing fear mirrors the BTC "going to zero" headlines from five years ago, indicating a recurring FUD cycle rather than new fundamentals. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 14, 2025. He adds that these unresearched posts suggest the market is still early, with sentiment-heavy narratives dominating attention. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 14, 2025. Based on @caprioleio’s view, traders can treat quantum FUD as headline-driven sentiment risk rather than a thesis-changing catalyst, avoiding reactive de-risking solely on such posts. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 14, 2025.